At 00:00, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on the interest rates in the country. Expectations are to keep the base interest rate at 1.75%, and the probability of an increase is only 1.4%. The interest rate decision will not be as influential as the Monetary Policy Report after it. The report is expected to support low interest rates and maintain QEs, due to low inflation, which is far from the desired 2% to 3%. In the medium term, I expect traders to focus on the Australian, as the country's economy provides better times for economic data. In addition, the Australian central bank raised its forecasts of reaching 2% target inflation and acknowledged that such inflation would require tighter monetary policy.
Let's look at the AUD/NZD and see what the possibilities are ahead of us.
AUD/NZD - D1
Technically, the couple is in a downward trend, but at the moment it forms an upside-down Head and Shoulders which, in view of the foundation, will most likely be confirmed and executed. We still do not have a buy signal, but the current values are perfect for risky traders who want to buy at a cheap price. In support of the long of the current levels are only 23.6% Fibonacci correction, which coincides with previous bottoms. The price is 50 per cent average, forming a bullish pin bar - positive for the price. DeMarker points down, coming out of over purchase zone - negative for the price. There is also an internal diagonal breakthrough - positive for the price.
SL: 1.0639
Alternative Scenario: If the price goes below the horizontal support zone and stays there in several successive bars, the positive scenario will be spoiled and more likely to see a decrease in the pair's price.
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