08.06.2017 - What to expect from the General Election in the UK

During the night, periodically there will be results coming out and the first results will be released at 23:00.

This is a hour by hour schedule during the night:

The U.K.’s general election is actually 650 separate votes in 650 individual districts. Most seats won’t change hands, and the outcome of only about 100 will determine the final tally for Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.
Last time round, it was the result from Nuneaton in the English Midlands at 1:50 a.m. that set the stage for David Cameron’s eventual victory — not only did Ed Miliband’s Labour fail to take a must-win bellwether seat, the Tories actually increased their share of the vote.

The projected declaration times here are from a list compiled by the Press Association newswire and they’re only estimates. If the result is close in any given district, a recount could delay the announcement.
The key to interpreting these results as they come in is the concept of swing — the shift in votes from one party to another compared with the previous election in 2015 — which is used to estimate how many seats might change hands.
At the moment, the polls are very mixed. The most favorable for May suggests a swing of close to 3 percentage points to the Tories — which might increase their majority to 80 seats or more. The least favorable, with a swing of more than 2 points to Labour, sees the Conservatives losing perhaps 15 seats and their parliamentary majority.

At 00:00 the voting will be finished

01:00 - The northeastern English city of Sunderland runs a slick operation to ensure its count finishes first, and is scheduled to announce results before midnight. These should be safe Labour seats — no Tory has won here since 1959 — so the interest will be in changes to vote shares as a pointer to later results. Labour had more than half of the vote in all three Sunderland seats in 2015.

03:00 - The results from strongly pro-EU but Conservative-held Battersea and Putney are scheduled to give the first indication of how the election played out in London, where the Tories have found it difficult to take votes from Labour. We should now see a trickle of results coming in but, unless there’s a major shock, none of these early seats is likely to change hands.

03:30 - This is when things get interesting. We’re due to get three results in Labour-held seats about now that will show whether the Tories are making gains. In Wrexham, in north Wales, the Conservatives need a swing of 2.8 percentage points from Labour. A gain would suggest they’re on course to increase their majority to more than 50 seats.

04:00 - The pace starts to pick up; we should have about 50 results by now. If the Tories are gaining seats, there will be further evidence of the scope of their success — a win in Bury South, in Greater Manchester, where they need a 5.2-point swing, might point to a majority of more than 100.

05:30 – Hartlepool is an ambitious target for the Conservatives in the northeast; it’s only the 65th most-winnable for the party on a swing of 7.4 points. Labour targets from the Tories include the very marginal district of Vale of Clwyd, in north Wales, and Warwickshire North, in the Midlands, where the opposition party needs a 3.1-point swing

05:00 – Getting toward peak results time now, at a rate of two a minute. The Tories will be looking for gains in winnable Labour districts across the country: both seats in Newport, in South Wales, a city where they last had a lawmaker elected in 1983, and two in Labour-leaning Coventry, in the West Midlands. Stockton North, in the northeast, may also be a target on a 10.6-point swing after the Conservatives unexpectedly won the election for Tees Valley regional mayor last month.

05:30 – More than a third of results will be in by now. If the Conservatives are on a roll, they could take Sedgefield, in the northeast, which needs an 8.8-point swing from Labour; it’s former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s old constituency. In London, Ilford North, Enfield North and Westminster North are all vulnerable to smallish swings to the Tories.

06:00 – This will be the busiest time, but the shape of the new Parliament should already be fairly clear, unless it’s really close. If it is, there are some key results to look for. Labour targets include Gower, in South Wales, their most winnable target overall, and Croydon Central and Hendon, their most winnable in London, as well as both districts in Plymouth, where May campaigned this week. The Tories will have their sights on Labour seats in the Midlands, including Walsall North and Newcastle-Under-Lyme.

06:30 – We should have more than two-thirds of the results in by about now and May will speak in her Maidenhead constituency, west of London, after the result there is announced. Key marginals include Wolverhampton South West, in the West Midlands, where the Tories need just a 1-point swing. Former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg may be under pressure from Labour in Sheffield Hallam.

07:00 – If it’s still going down to the wire, we’re due results from some of the 10 most-winnable Labour-held Tory targets: City of Chester and Wirral West, in northwest England, Halifax, in Yorkshire, where May launched the Tory manifesto, and Brentford & Isleworth, in west London. Bristol West is the Greens’ number one target for a second Commons seat. UKIP leader Paul Nuttall is running in Boston & Skegness in eastern England.

08:00 - More than 600 results should be in by now. Derby North and Brighton Kemptown are must-win Tory-held targets for Labour. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk is the most winnable Scottish district for the Tories.
If the result is clear, expect May or Corbyn to make a victory speech at some point over the next few hours.

By 14:00 noon there are still some results that will be expected, but they will hardly make a dent at the final score.

After 08:00  we will await the forecast for the new government and what its new priorities will be.
We will remain cautious toward the GBP during the full day, as there might be fast and sudden moves during the final result.

Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal

Jr Trader Petar Milanov

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