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2018 to bring uncertainty and political volatility that investors does not expect

Global political risks

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Expect more political volatility in 2018 to follow an already volatile year, director for Europe and Africa at Control Risks, Nick Allen.

"What we've seen is a real shift to national politicians driving the agenda and businesses are having to adjust to that," Allen said. "So more political volatility — we've had a lot of that in 2017 so more in 2018 is what we're looking at. A lot of things have changed, particularly from a business perspective. Business by and large was used to the fact that most governments were fairly business friendly, keen to encourage investment. No one was ever calling the WTO, NAFTA into question."

S&P Global on Sunday called 2017 the best year since 2013. The S&P 500 posted 61 new closing highs versus 18 last year, while the Dow posted 69 new closing highs versus 26 in 2017, tying the record set in 1995, according to an S&P Dow Jones Indices report. "Earnings, dividends, and cash set records.: he added.

Some of this is attributed to optimism that President Donald Trump will deliver on his tax overhaul. At the same time, the president's actions have contributed to widespread uncertainty concerning trade agreements, economic norms, international alliances and foreign policy.

"The U.S. does set the agenda, it's the most powerful nation on earth. The leadership matters, 2017 very much the year of Trump," Allen continued. However, he added: "He hasn't yet really pushed through his protectionist policies — that is one of the risks we've highlighted."

"The laundry list for 2018 does look very similar to the laundry list of 2017 — the key for me is that actually nothing happened," Dwane told CNBC. "Brexit hasn't happened, we haven't had a trade war, we haven't had a real war, the Middle East has deteriorated but nothing has actually threatened the supply of oil. I think the markets have been right to ignore the headlines."

Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal

Trader Bozhidar Arabadzhiev


 Varchev Traders

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