5 black swans that could rock markets in 2016

There are lots of things we more or less know will happen in 2016. The Federal Reserve will make lots of speeches about how it will raise interest several times, then leave them where they are. An oil company or two will go bust. Greece will go to the brink of leaving the euro, then get bailed out at the last moment.

All of that can just about be taken for granted as investors contemplate the 12 months ahead.

But what are the potential black swans — that is, events that no one has reckoned on yet, but which could rock the markets in the next 12 months? Most years one or two come along. Very few people saw that the oil price would crash so spectacularly this year, or that China would embark on share-buying frenzy only to see it collapse. 2016 will not be any different.

By definition, the unpredictable is not easy to predict — but with that caveat in mind, here are five potential black swans that are worth keeping an eye on.

One: The iPhone 7 is postponed

The latest Apple phone — the 7 and the 7-plus — is set to be unveiled in September next year. Apple product launches come around with the dependability of the seasons, which makes it easy to forget that, unlike the weather, there is a human element involved. It is easy to forget as well the extent to which the markets depend on Apple AAPL, +1.80% , the world’s largest company, and how much Apple in turn depends on its juggernaut phone division.

By itself, the company has a value of more than $600 billion, and the satellite businesses supplying both software and hardware are worth even more. But design flaws, or production delays in China, could throw the launch off course. So could the simple fact that it is getting harder and harder to think of anything really original every year to add to what is already a very good device.

A delay would be catastrophic for the markets, because it is the new phones that drive Apple’s profits. Worse, it would undermine the entire technology sector, and that is about the only thing holding the markets up. It is hard to think of any single event — barring perhaps the assassination of a U.S. president — that would hit the markets harder.

Two: A Sovereign Wealth Fund Sells Out

Between them, the sovereign wealth funds have built up an estimated $4.3 trillion of assets. Where does most if it come from? Oil? And what has happened to the oil price? It has tanked. The whole point of a SWF is to put some of that money aside for a rainy day — and this is the rainy day.

Right now, it looks as if at least some of them will need that money back — to take just one example, the Saudi Arabians have already started cutting public spending to balance the books, but dipping into a fund will be a lot easier than cutting wages and benefits. Add in the fact that many SWF’s have invested in some highly geared (and illiquid) property plays, and they may well be the biggest accident waiting to happen in the global financial system this year. At the very least, a wave of selling could hit the markets very hard.

Three: Mario Draghi resigns

The president of the European Central Bank fixed the euro crisis virtually single-handedly with this promises to print unlimited money to salvage any eurozone country that went bust. Ever since then, the bond markets have been calmed, and Draghi is by far the central banker that traders most respect. His term runs until 2019, but no one is ever secure in a job like that.

If Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fell from power — and he is coming up for his second anniversary, which is a long time in Italian politics — Draghi could be drafted in to sort out the mess. Or he might tire of the political infighting in Frankfurt — the vacancy for managing director of the International Monetary Fund coming up next summer might look very tempting to a man of his caliber.

What would happen if he left? The Germans would almost certainly insist it was their turn to take the ECB presidency — and with a Bundesbank hard-liner in charge, the euro crisis would be back big time.

Four: A Unicorn Folds

The likes of Airbnb and Uber may be able to justify their massive valuations, perhaps. But there are some very flaky “unicorns” — that is, startups valued at over $1 billion — out there. In total, there are 145 of them, worth a collective $500 billion.

Does anyone really believe that all of them are even viable businesses, let alone ones that are worth a billion dollars? It is a sure bet one of two will go bust, sending shockwaves through markets that had come to believe a bit too much of the hype around the ability of brand new companies to disrupt whole industries with a couple of snazzy apps.

Five: Peace in Syria

The oil price CLG6, -2.35% has already dropped dramatically, and that is against a backdrop of a civil war raging in the heart of the Middle East — which usually means a higher price. Right now, there doesn’t seem much hope of any good outcome for the region. But what would happen if Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad were removed from the scene, either voluntarily, or, more likely, by force? The Islamic State might be defeated very quickly by combination of Russian, local and Western forces.

Order would be restored, and a lot more oil would come onto the market from what is now war-torn Northern Iraq — and if the Islamic State were driven from Libya next, it could pump more oil as well. The result? Oil could drop all the way down to $10 a barrel.

You don’t need to be have been re-reading Tolstoy over Christmas to remember that peace can be just as destabilizing as war — and certainly if it is unexpected.

Of course, none of those may happen. But it is always an event that was on no one’s radar that causes the real disruption in the markets — and those are five possible candidates.