ANZ first quarter GDP forecasts:
USA:
GDPNow Q1 is 2.0% q/q annualised
Momentum eased over the past week amid softer manufacturing and housing data
Euro area:
GDPNow Q1 is just below 0.2% q/q
Our estimate eased slightly over the past week ... disappointing trade data and a fall in construction output
Japan GDPNow Q1 is 0.0% q/q
Our initial read of Japanese GDP for Q1 2016 suggests slightly positive growth
The GDPNow estimate for Q1 is more or less flat ... Momentum eased amid weakness in the factory sector (a decline in industrial production) and in services (a further contraction in the Tertiary industry)
China GDPNow Q1 is 6.6% y/y
The estimate was up modestly over the week
ANZ's GDPNow is an indicator of underlying momentum in real time:
It can serve as an 'early warning indicator' of possible shifts in momentum relative to how consensus is viewing current GDP growth.
The model inputs comprise both soft (eg survey) and hard data that reflect the supply and demand side of the economy.
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