The GBP gave a strong demand for a decline on the first day of the week after it became clear that the moods among Bank of England members were very positive. Earlier today, in an interview with Bloomberg, Mark Carney, managing director of Bank Of England (BOE), said the bank was preparing for Brexit and the next financial crisis. Carney avoids anything that can be considered as a direct comment on monetary policy, but his apparent deviation from better growth and higher interest rates clearly shows his intentions.
So far, Carney's only worry remains the trade war by saying that "The impacts and messages are currently small, but I warn that all of this can very quickly get out of control and without any signs before."
Technical GBP / USD remains above the main support zone, and today's growth encourages traders to see a reversal of the mid-term trend towards a rising one. The price has reached a horizontal support zone formed by previous bottoms at the end of 2017, and we are now seeing the emergence of the inverted Head And Shoulders. In support of the long is 50% Fibonacci correction of the main trend as well as its main diagonal. 50 and 200SMA remain sword place, the price remains close to the 50-year but bottom. DeMarker points up, forming a rebound from the limit of over-sales - a weak but positive price signal.
The support area is of cardinal importance, and if it is overcome, the GBP will likely "enjoy" significant sales by speculators and long-term investors.
Entry from current levels is risky because it does not allow a shallow and at the same time a remote stop. I think a short-diagonal breakthrough or a core support area test will provide good opportunities. We are waiting for the BOE solution, then we will look for good levels for positioning with Long or Short.
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