Following Bank Of Canada's report today, the increase in interest rates at the July meeting is becoming more and more likely scenario. According to Bloomberg, the probability of raising interest rates jumped to 78.5% from 52% before the bank's report today.
The really big step that Bank Of Canada has done today is to remove the word "cautious" in your statement. What will have a longer-lasting effect on the Canadian is the line on which the central bank decides to move, saying "Higher interest rates will be guaranteed over time."
I expect the decline to continue to levels around 1.2730/50 in the coming days, as there is no foundation in support of the USD. Today, data on new jobs in the US, according to ADP, have been published, looking at lower-than-expected data. This suggests that official data on Friday will also be worse than expected and this will support USD/CAD short positions. Indicators are also in support of the decline. The CCI50 goes below 100 - signaling the end of the rally. RSI 14 goes below 50, signaling a new bearish wave. Stochastic goes out of the over-purchase area pointing down - a negative signal.
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