A test for Trump: Senate elections ahead

The Trial

The Midterm elections will be held tomorrow (6.11.2018). This is widely seen by the general public as a referendum evaluating Trump's policy as President. Party strategies rather provide for division after the preliminary survey data show Democrats are gaining momentum for a majority stake, while Republicans are trying to retain control of the Senate.

Such a result, if at all, will be the product of a purely "geographic division". This will be the most expensive election in US history, and the battle will be fought between two different Americas, outlining a new political shift.

The smaller places in the country where Donald Trump is not so popular will be key in the struggle for the Senate. Larger landscapes, big cities that are Trump's "strongholds," will prevail. Trump said in a Friday rally in West Virginia that Republicans may lose control in the Senate, allowing the Democrats to start investigating his activities and blocking him from the plans he has.

Democrats are confident in their chances of attracting supporters in the race. This Democratic race and the potential they have will only give them more support and more donors will come to their campaign.

On Sunday, a poll by The Wall Street Journal in cooperation with NBC, shows how much these elections will actually take and the form of a referendum. Nearly three-quarters of voters voted that their voice was the idea of ​​sending a message. 32% said they were giving a strong signal that they supported Trump and 40% said they supported the opposition. 28% say that Trump is not such a big factor in their decisions.

The Democrats poll shows a voter turnout after being questioned which party should control Congress. "We are seeing a great political shift," says Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat who has spent three mandates in the Senate. It ends with "The political situation is a very confused moment".

The Race

The battle for the Senate is divided into several segments of areas, mainly in the middle of the two political powers and geographically: small settlements, suburbs and large cities where the population prevails to be centered or right. The graph compares the density of the population and its activity with the so-called. Partisan voter Index - how an area has voted against the national level during the last two presidential elections.

The Battlefield

Advantage: Democrats

Recent changes in areas controlled by the Republicans have already begun to escape under the control of the Democrats. Even if Democrats manage to take full control, they will not have 23 seats for a majority stake in the Senate.

Open Filed

Democrats have chances in the race tomorrow. Many of the voters supporting them are the suburbs and suburbs as the 39th suburb of California, 48th of Los Adellis and 15th of Florida.

Right Aligned

If a "blue wave" is formed on Tuesday, it will come mostly from the 28 regions that are in favor of the Republican attitude. These are the toughest districts the Democrats want to take for victory. These districts are from Alaska to Montana and the 11th District of New York.

Tuesday will be a day of trial, especially for the Anti-Trump inertia that has gathered after the Women's March since his inauguration in 2017. And this trial could also punch him to his party.

Whatever the outcome, this campaign will go into the record. More money has been spent on these Midterm elections ever since. Voting will be at record levels. We have a precedent in the number of women who have joined the race.

Source information: The Wall Street Journal

Source Charts: Тhe Wall Street Journal

Source Photo: Uniplash

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