All Brexit in one post

Britain and the EU agreed to postpone Article 50. Initially, the separation had to take place on 29 March.

After losing two votes on the Brexit deal, Theresa May is now requesting MEPs to support only half of the deal - the withdrawal agreement covering the divorce agreement.

If it succeeds, Brexit will be postponed until May 22, but there will still be problems to fix. If it fails, we can expect the process of "indicative votes" to continue on Monday.

The Brexit agreement has two main elements: a legally binding withdrawal agreement covering money, a transitional period, citizens' rights and the border with Northern Ireland; and the political declaration on long-term future relations.

Then why are MEPs now only being asked to examine the first part?

Well, on March 18, John Bercow, chairman of the House of Commons, ruled that there could be only repetitions of previous voices in the deal. Changes would have to be made, or MPs would have to be asked to look at another issue.

Also, the agreement with the EU for a longer period only requires MEPs to approve the withdrawal agreement to allow a longer delay until May 22.

However, the vote continues, but there are still several possible outcomes.

1. Leaving the EU on the deal by Theresa May

As things stand, it is not enough for MEPs to approve the withdrawal agreement. The EU Revolutionary Act of 2018 also requires the approval of the political declaration.

But if they get the first part through the municipalities, the government can try to get approval for the second part later - probably after negotiations with other countries about potential changes in the political declaration.

Alternatively, they could seek to change the Retirement Act. This will still require MEPs to agree.

The government's preference will be to understand as quickly as possible in order to avoid the need for further delay of Brexit.

But there is also the possibility that Theresa May's agreement will return at a later date if the deputies fail to agree on an alternative, but continue to insist that the UK can not leave the EU without an agreement.

2. No deal

Brexit without a deal is still an opportunity. Actually, this is the default outcome if MPs can not agree with anything else and no additional extensions.

As things look right now, Brexit without a deal will happen on April 12 in the absence of other solutions.

It could also happen on 22 May if MEPs back the withdrawal agreement but block any attempts to continue with the political declaration.

3. Major renegotiation

If MEPs do not support the agreement and if they continue to oppose the deal, there will be a process to look at other options.

One of the possibilities is to negotiate a completely new deal with Brexit.

It would not be a matter of making minor changes and further voting.

Instead, there may be full renegotiation, which will take some time. This will require further delay to Brexit, and the United Kingdom will have to take part in the European Parliament elections in May.

A review may lead to one of the other proposed ways of concluding a deal - perhaps something close to the so-called "Norwegian model" that would involve a closer relationship with the EU than proposed by this agreement.

If the EU refuses to re-enter the negotiations, the government will have to replace one of the other options.

4. New referendum

Another option is to hold a new referendum.

It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which is legally non-binding and consultative. Some MPs, however, want to hold a mandatory referendum in which the outcome will automatically come into force - like the 2011 referendum on changing the voting system for UK general elections.

Anyway, the referendum can not happen automatically. The rules for referendums are laid down in a law called the 2000 Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act

There must be a new piece of legislation to hold a referendum and lay down rules, such as who will be allowed to vote.

Here things can not be rushed because there must be time for the election committee to look into and give opinions on the issue of the referendum.

Then the issue is defined in the legislation.

Once the legislation is adopted, the referendum can not happen right away. Before a vote is held, there must be a legal referendum.

Experts from University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all the necessary steps above is about 22 weeks.

5. Convening of new elections

Theresa May may decide that the best option here is to hold early elections

She has no power simply to call elections. But, as in 2017, she may ask MEPs to vote for early elections under the Temporary Parliaments Act.

Two-thirds of all MEPs will have to support this move. The earliest election date will be 25 working days later, but then the prime minister may choose the exact date.

6. New vote of no confidence

The government experienced the no-confidence vote on 16 January with 325 votes to 306 people.

Under the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, UK general elections are expected to take place only every five years. The next date should be in 2022.

But a vote of no confidence allows MPs to vote if they want the government to continue. The proposal has to be formulated: "Parliament has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government."

If the majority of MPs vote on the proposal, it starts a 14-day countdown.

If during this time the current government or some other alternative government can not win a new vote of confidence, then early general elections will be announced.

These elections can not happen for at least 25 business days

7. Brexit is dropping

The European Court of Justice ruled that it is legitimate for the United Kingdom to unilaterally repeal Article 50 to revoke Brexit (without the need for consent from the other 27 EU countries).

As the government still engages with Brexit, it is likely that a major event such as a further referendum or a government change will happen before such action.

However, any further delay of Brexit would certainly raise questions about whether the final destination would be a reversal of the 2016 referendum.

It is not quite clear what the process will be. But an act of Parliament calling for the repeal of Rule 50 will probably be enough.

Other options

Theresa May said she would withdraw if her deal was over.

Once in a struggle for its leadership, there is no way for her to be expelled from her party until December - according to the rules of the Conservative Party.

But he could still choose to resign if he could not make a deal and was not ready to change his course.

This would lead to a conservative leadership campaign that would lead to the appointment of a new prime minister.

It could be under pressure to resign if MPs spend "a suggestion of reprimand" - it would be a bit like a vote of no confidence, but without the same automatic consequences. This may again lead to a change in the prime minister or even to a change in government.

Whoever is responsible will still face the same basic range of Brexit options.

Source: BBC

Picture: pixabay.com

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