All you need to know ahead of Turkey’s referendum

Turkish citizens will head to the polls on Sunday to vote on a new draft constitution which could dramatically increase the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Voters are being asked to decide whether to shift Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic.

A Yes vote would institutionalize a de factor one-man rule with Turkey's powerful yet divisive premier at the helm while a No vote would reject Erdogan's enduring wish for drastic reform.

"This vote represents a radical transformation that consolidates the power to a centrally executive president rather than a parliamentary system… that's why it matters," Fadi Hakura, an associated fellow and manager of the Turkey Project at Chatham House told.

"Erdogan knows it's on a knife-edge…" Michael Taylor, senior analyst at Oxford Analytica told.

"The Dutch and German developments really benefitted Erdogan… I mean he is a terrific campaigner, he engages with the people and his finger is really on the pulse, so I suppose he is a good populist in that sense," Taylor added.

Erdogan's international campaign for a Yes vote has received widespread disdain. Turkey's leader embraced a bitter row with his European neighbors and even described Dutch and German authorities as behaving like Nazis.Two Turkish opinion polls published Wednesday showed a slim majority for the Yes campaign with around 51 to 52 percent of citizens saying they would vote in favor of the constitutional reforms proposed, according to a Reuters report.

"I think Erdogan will score a narrow victory, similar to Brexit," Chatham's Hakura predicted.

"A yes vote could be a way to gradually and eventually de-escalate some of the geo-political tensions Turkey faces currently." said James Sawyer, researcher at Eurasia Group.

Voters are being asked to decide whether to shift Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic.

A Yes vote would institutionalize a de factor one-man rule with Turkey's powerful yet divisive premier at the helm while a No vote would reject Erdogan's enduring wish for drastic reform.

"This vote represents a radical transformation that consolidates the power to a centrally executive president rather than a parliamentary system… that's why it matters," Fadi Hakura, an associated fellow and manager of the Turkey Project at Chatham House, told.

"If it's a Yes vote, it will codify the vast influence in Turkish politics and Erdogan's already vast influence in policy making. If No, it will shake and undermine the prestige and dent the aura of invincibility that has so far defined his tenure in politics," Hakura added.

"Erdogan knows it's on a knife-edge…" Michael Taylor, senior analyst at Oxford Analytica, told CNBC in a phone interview.

"The Dutch and German developments really benefitted Erdogan… I mean he is a terrific campaigner, he engages with the people and his finger is really on the pulse, so I suppose he is a good populist in that sense," Taylor added.

Erdogan's international campaign for a Yes vote has received widespread disdain. Turkey's leader embraced a bitter row with his European neighbors and even described Dutch and German authorities as behaving like Nazis.

Two Turkish opinion polls published Wednesday showed a slim majority for the Yes campaign with around 51 to 52 percent of citizens saying they would vote in favor of the constitutional reforms proposed, according to a Reuters report.

"I think Erdogan will score a narrow victory, similar to Brexit," Chatham's Hakura predicted.

"A yes vote could be a way to gradually and eventually de-escalate some of the geo-political tensions Turkey faces currently." James Sawyer, researcher at Eurasia Group told.

Erdogan's critics have decried his bid for enhanced powers and pointed to his presiding over a country which is the world's biggest jailer of journalists and a country which has arrested or suspended over 140,000 people since the failed coup attempt in 2016.

"Around 85 percent of Turkey's revenues go to central government… so just imagine the centralized power of a President in this case," Hakura said.

"It would be a terrific slap in the face to be rejected… he would likely take it very personally. Then again, if it is a No vote, he could well carry on acting as president anyway," Taylor said.

"If it is a No vote then things will become more difficult, the ways to achieve executive powers later will likely become more divisive," Sawyer told.

Source: CNBC

Trader Bozhidar Arabadzhiev

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