Big players expectations for the US NFP data at 15:30

07.04.2017 / 13:51

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It seems that the big players are quite separated in their forecasts for the data today. Consensus today is for 180,000 new employed in non-farm sector, but Jim O'Sullivan (HFT trader), which has the greatest awareness and rank 1, expected disappointing data 125 000.

Next in the ranking awareness of data expected is 235 000. The data show that despite much good data for ADP on Wednesday we should be with caution today and we be prepared for both scenarios.

From the table below we see that data in March is negative in 4 of 7 cases, which tilts the scales slightly toward the negative scenario today.

The average values from 2010 onwards were 190 000, the maximum and minimum respectively 86 000 and 272 000, which gives some explanation for the split in the projections of large bank traders in the coming months amplitude between the maximum and minimum value expands.

Source: Bloomberg

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Big players expectations for the US NFP data at 15:30

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