Bloomberg: expectations for 7 CNY /1 USD

Bloomberg quoted informed source from China, with information that the yuan will be devalued to 7 CNY for $ 1 by the end of 2015 and to 8 yuan per dollar by the end of 2016. This makes nearly 20% at the end of 2016.

On 13 August the deputy governor of the PBoC official said that talk of devaluation of the Chinese currency by 10% are "nonsense." In a Bloomberg calculation probability of rate ¥ 7 / $ 1 by the end of 2015 was 9%. Many analysts believe the biggest trade surplus (profitsit) China will keep the yuan naturally at levels far from such impairment.

Analysts at Commerzbank in Singapore commented that the Chinese authorities will not allow rate 7 ¥ / $ 1, because it will have a strong negative impact on foreign debt payments and unpredictable effects on capital flows.

Bloomberg based on 28 sources and makes a median estimate of foreign exchange reserves of China by providing their reduction with $ 40 billion per month. For the past seven weeks, however, Beijing has already spent more than $ 200 billion trying to balance stock market. On Monday, these interventions were fully terminated after 8% of the Shanghai Composite, which, however, lost another 7.6 percent on Tuesday and for the first time in eight months in 3000 down to 2964.97.

All risks are retained. Continued general downward movement in raw materials. The currencies of emerging markets depreciate against the USD. CEMBI JPMorgan index shows that the spread on bonds in emerging markets reached 415 basis points, nearly 100 more than the level in June. The bonds of these countries are losing income accumulated since the beginning of 2015 and do not cause any interest now because of the strong negative fundamental forecasts.