Guidance BOE gives is conditional on economic outlook
Households, businesses understand that rates are likely to rise at a gentle pace
Q1 slowdown likely due to idiosyncratic and temporary factors
It is right to wait for more data
Interest rate volatility in short-term markets is very low by historic standards
Expect to report more on neutral level of UK interest rates in August inflation report
MPC has had rigorous discussion of publishing interest rate path
Majority are not in favour
If BOE published rate path, may feel committed to follow for reasons of credibility
Even if such a move is no longer economically appropriate
So far nothing too new from Carney. Still brushing aside the weak Q1 data and suddenly the attention has been shifted to the possible publishing of a rate path guidance. Vlieghe is for it, but Saunders and Ramden has so far spoken against it.
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