Brexit: Election risks ahead of parliament rumble today

03.09.2019 / 07:50

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It all comes down to a vote in Parliament to determine whether we will be heading to the polls again before the end of October. Let's try to simplify what happened yesterday and what can happen today.

First, the opposition will make an urgent proposal today to take control of parliament in order to stop the no-deal Brexit.

They will attempt to vote and pass a bill to oblige Boris Johnson to postpone Article 50 from 31 October 2019 to 31 January 2020.

Johnson has already warned the Toritans that if they vote against Parliament, he will stand against them. For now, they remain weakly impressed with this and will do their best to succeed.

Also, BoJo made it very clear that it would not respond to any desire to cancel Brexit Day, and overall its message is this: If they try to take control of the government in the Brexit process, I will call an election.

A 2/3 majority (currently 650 MPs, ie at least 434 votes) is required to call elections, so this will be a magic number to keep track of.

In this case, Labor opposition is also key. Jeremy Corbyn said his party is united, but other parties may not be as clear and united as they will want to stop the no-deal Brexit before heading to the ballot box.

This poses another problem as there is still no clear legislation to prevent the hard Brexit scenario. In that case, Johnson's victory means he will still be able to pursue the no-deal option.

But they are unlikely to have time to do so given how things look this week. Everything is very volatile right now, so keep an eye out for potential titles later today. Regarding the potential date of the elections, mark October 14 in your calendars.

Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

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Brexit: Election risks ahead of parliament rumble today

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