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Brexit, Trade War and oil will dominate the markets next week
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Loading...Next week, there is a lack of news that is central to FX and stock markets, suggesting that they will be driven entirely by rumors of the trade war, Brexit, central bank policy, and oil price cuts.
The energy sector will remain the most sensitive, followed by GBP, driven entirely by the Brexit talks. The strong correlation between CAD and oil is likely to continue to negatively affect the Canadian, with any correction being good for short positioning. With regard to the energy sector, it is a good idea to focus on energy ETFs that provide good opportunities for quick intraday profits through short positions.
As for Brexit, the situation remains extremely tense despite positive news from the past week. Teresa May has begun meetings with her Cabinet to review the text on the nearly-agreed Brexit contract, and the negotiations themselves are in the final phase. The most important and at the same time missing at the moment is the solution to the issue of the free passage of goods across the Irish border. It is the solution to this problem that will be expected by traders next week, and as long as they do not see the Short Seller, they will be the strength of the day. Like the CAD positioning strategy, any upward adjustment in GBP will be used to add to the short positions. HERE, however, should be very careful as a possible solution to the Irish border issue will result in a massive GBP Inflow and very sharp growth in the British currency.
With regard to stock indices around the world, I expect the United States to stay in the long-term upward channel while Europe and Asia remain on the sword territory. In the last minutes of the US session on Friday, we see traders' purchases, suggesting that positive moods remain in force, despite the short-term downward momentum stemming from the Fed's decision to keep interest rates and its intention to further raise in December. Levels for most US indices are good for positioning long, but it's good to wait for oil price stabilization, which pulls the energy sector and the entire market down.
Economic calendar for the week 12.11 - 16.11.2018
Monday
On Monday, the calendar remains empty for important economic news
Tuesday
02:30 Australia - NAB Business confidence
09:00 Germany - CPI
10:15 Switzerland - PPI
11:30 UK - Average hourly wage
11:30 UK - Unemployment rate
12:00 Germany - ZEW economic sentiment
12:00 Eurozone - ZEW economic sentiment
13:20 US - OPEC Monthly Report
21:00 USA - Budget Balance
Wednesday
01:50 Japan - GDP
04:00 China - Industrial Production
04:00 China - Unemployment rate
04:00 China - Retail sales
06:30 Japan - Industrial Production
09:00 Germany - GDP
11:00 USA - Monthly Report of the International Energy Association
11:30 UK - CPI
11:30 UK - PPI
12:00 Eurozone - GDP
12:00 Eurozone - Industrial Production
15:30 US - CPI
23:30 US - API Crude oil inventories
Thursday
01:05 USA - Speech by Jerome Powell
02:30 Australia - Unemployment Rate
02:30 Australia - New Jobs
11:30 UK - Retail sales
12:00 Eurozone - Trade Balance
15:30 USA - Retail Sales
15:30 USA - Requests for unemployment benefits
15:30 United States - Philadelphia Production Index
18:00 United States - Oil Stocks
23:30 New Zealand - Business PMI
Friday
12:00 Eurozone - CPI
16:15 USA - Industrial Production
Trader Petar Milanov Read more:
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