Brexit: What will happen today

Once again, we will have to shift attention to two completely different aspects of Brexit drama early this week.

In Brussels, European leaders will meet again to reach a unanimous decision on how much to extend Brexit.

In the meantime, in London, Johnson will submit his proposal for early elections in order to crush the government that voted against him last week.

What to expect from the EU?

If they do not agree to an extension, the UK will leave the block without a deal on Thursday.

As improbable as this may sound, it is certainly still a possible scenario because France is still playing it by the bad cop, demanding an extension until November 30th.

However, the most anticipated scenario is a three-month extension to 31 January 2020.

This means that the exit transaction is accepted before the deadline; the agreement will enter into force before 31 January 2020. Potential replacement dates are 1 December 2019 and 1 January 2020.

The only obstacle here would be if the deal could no longer be renegotiated, which would not give rise to a date extension.

This version was already played last year and here we are now.

What to expect from the UK?

No - deal Brexit is still on the table. This means that Labor has no chance today to support Johnson for a new election on December 12th. He will not get a 2/3 majority, which will put the situation at a standstill.

There are two options left: to freeze the deal until it finds a way to make an election or to propose such a legal change that requires a smaller majority to accept.

Even if accepted, the proposal will still undergo changes until it becomes law, and there is no guarantee that Labor will support the proposal then.

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