FX forecast / CAD/JPY / H4 Our expectations:
The rise in stock markets led to a massive sale of JPY to major currencies, and the good outcome of the NAFTA talks supported the Canadian. CAD receives support for oil above $60 a barrel, as most Canadian companies earn at prices above $40. The short-term foundation remains in favor of long positions in CAD/JPY.
The technical price recorded a breakthrough in the downward movement and formed an inverted H & S. Yesterday the price probed the line of hedge and is currently registering a new high. In addition to the long idea, we also see a 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous trend - the path to 50% remains clean. 50 and 200SMA are still crossed, but the price movement successfully tested 200SMA and formed a strong rebound in the upward direction. The level coincides with that of a hedge, as well as with horizontal support. RSI 14 remains over 50 - the upward trend is in place
SL: 82.40
Alternative Scenario: If the price goes back below 200SMA and stays in several successive bars there, the positive scenario will be spoiled and more likely to see a decline.
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