As the world's second-largest economy is slowing down because of its collision with the US on trade, the most important question for Invesco's Noelle Corum is whether China's stimulus measures, including the People's Bank of China, are enough to turn things.
"The key issue, at least for credit markets and risky assets, is whether Chinese growth and PBOC's actions are effective enough," Corum said. "Three of the big questions are related to growth, trade and the Fed, of course, but everything ultimately depends on growth because of China's efficiency."
While trade disputes continue - Trade Minister Wilbur Ross said the decision is "very far away" - China's economic indicators have alarmed the whole world, as the weak performance of the country will also negatively affect emerging economies.
Corum predicts that China's attempts will succeed by supporting Europe and emerging markets. With that in mind, it expects the US markets to consolidate and is the "tactical shortcut" of the dollar.
"They have shown us that they are fully prepared to respond appropriately to global issues as things get worse," she said. "And while we do not think there will be a major recovery in China, I think it will stabilize, which is enough for the moment."
It expects the euro to rise to $ 1.20 by the end of the year, from about $ 1.1370 currently.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Original Post: Mysteries Pile Up in FX Market, From Fed's Path to China Growth
Chart: Used with permission form Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Read more:
25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256
World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600 Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44
Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.
Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006
The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Disclaimer:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.