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- China’s GDP and BoC will move markets next week. Syria stay on focus
China's GDP and BoC will move markets next week. Syria stay on focus
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Loading...Next week it will be weak on economic news with some exceptions on Tuesday and Wednesday when we expect China's GDP and Bank Of Canada's decision on the key interest rate. Over the weekend, as well as next week, we are waiting for news coming from the Middle East. There is a tightening of tone between the two powers, the United States and Russia, but the west desire to hit Syria does not slow down. This will continue to create uncertainty among investors, and a possible NATO attack in Syria will send JPY, Gold and CHF to new heights. Oil will not stay back, though it accumulates much of the West's intentions in its price.
Syria remains on focus, but China signals a delay as we wait for interest rates from Canada. What next?
Consensus forecasts indicate that the Chinese economy will experience a slight decrease, both on a monthly and annual basis. On a monthly basis, we expect GDP to decline to 1.5% from 1.6%, and to 6.7% year-on-year to 6.8%. Any deviation from the forecasted values will lead to strong CNH, AUD, and NZD volatility. Perhaps it is no longer a secret for anyone that the trade war will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy and better than expected data on the country's GDP will be beneficial. With better data, we expect a limited rise in AUD and NZD as investors avoid risky currencies against a backdrop of tensions in the Middle East. In worse data, however, the impact will be stronger as tariffs are not yet accumulated by the expected data, and the economy is already slowing down. I'm not expecting surprises from Canada. After the surprise interest rate pick-up in September last year, the central bank led an extremely moderate monetary policy. It is good to turn our attention to the bank's report from which we will get a full picture of what the moods are among the members of the bank, and from there and what their actions would be like. Regarding Stephen Polloz comments, we will probably hear the well-known phrase "It all depends on the country's economic performance." Expectations are that interest rates remain unchanged at 1.25%. Although indirectly, CAD will be driven primarily by the price of oil where there are no movements. USD - I expect the price to remain in the range due to a lack of strong positive or negative fundamentals that will generate strong movements in the US currency. The last minutes of Friday's session saw stock market declines and a rise in the dollar as the main reason behind this was Sell Off in the banking sector. If stock market declines continue, it is likely that investors will prefer USD, strongly increasing demand. If we judge the Dollar Index for the dollar, the breakthrough between the range of 89.00 and 90.50 will be key to the price of the currency.
The economic news that will move the markets next week - 16.04 - 20.04.2018.
Monday
10:15 Switzerland - PPI
15:30 USA - Retail Sales
20:15 US - Speech by Raphael Bostik, Fed member
Tuesday
04:30 Australia - RBA report
05:00 China - GDP
05:00 China - Industrial Production
05:00 China - Investments in bonds
07:30 Japan - Industrial Production
11:30 UK - Unemployment rate
12:00 Germany - ZEW Economic sentiment
12:00 Eurozone - ZEW Economic sentiment
15:30 United States - Building permits
23:30 US - API crude oil inventories
Wednesday
02:50 Japan - Trade Balance
11:30 UK - CPI
11:30 UK - PPI
12:00 Eurozone - CPI
17:00 Canada - Bank Of Canada Interest Rate decision
17:00 Canada - BoC Report on Monetary Policy
17:30 US - Crude oil inventories
21:00 USA - Beige Book
Thursday
01:45 New Zealand - CPI
02:50 Japan - Foreign Investments in Equities and Bonds
04:30 Australia - Unemployment Rate
04:30 Australia - New Jobs
11:30 UK - Retail
15:30 Canada - Non Farm Payrolls
Friday
02:30 Japan - CPI
09:00 Germany - PPI
15:30 Canada - CPI
15:30 Canada - Retail sales
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