www.varchev.com

Comments from bank analysts following the victory by 'No' at the Greek referendum

Rating:

12345
Loading...

BNP economists have shifted their call for the Federal Reserve's first rate hike to December (from September) following the 'No' victory

Markets are likely to be stressed tomorrow morning with risk-off the order of the day
Good chance the ECB would move quickly to alleviate strains
Heightened uncertainty about Greece's continued membership of the eurozone is likely to continue for some weeks
Greece will try to reopen negotiations tomorrow and the EU will respond, but the base case is these will not get very far. There are still a couple of weeks before Greece has to make a EUR3.5bn payment to the ECB on 20th July, which we see as a very significant date.
The Fed's concerns about the possible impact of a Fed hike on markets and therefore on the economy will have intensified. We do not see these tensions being resolved quickly and so have changed our call for the Fed moving in September, which we now see as only a 30% chance. December is now our base case.
It is unlikely that there will be sufficiently smooth waters in Europe for the Fed to tee up a September hike at its late July meeting.
Barclays - Say a Greek euro exit remains most likely

"We see two possibilities, even if both are less likely than an exit. Europe and Greece could agree on a programme on the IMF's terms
"A more disruptive scenario would be one in which financial and macroeconomic conditions rapidly worsen and social unrest could result in a political crisis, yielding a more moderate pro-deal government"
JP Morgan - Greece leaving the Euro ... the baseline scenario

A probability of about 2/3rd at present
"We see possibilities of Greece remaining in the Euro zone, either via a last minute agreement with current government under the assumption that the ECB continue to maintain and potentially increase ELA (15%) or in case in which Tsipras steps down and a new unity government is formed (20%)."


 Varchev Traders
RECCOMEND WAS THIS POST USEFUL FOR YOU?
If you think, we can improve that section,
please comment. Your oppinion is imortant for us.
WARNING: Any news, opinions, research, data or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Varchev Finance Ltd. expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Varchev Finance Ltd. may provide information, quotes, references and links to or from other sites and blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the sites, blogs or other sources of information.
Varchev Finance

London


25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256

Universal numbers

World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600    Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44

Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.

Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006

The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.


Disclaimer:

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

chat with dealer
chat with dealer
Cookies policy