According to Commerzbank AG the markets are not yet ready for surprise changes to ECB policy : this is true especially for the scenario where the central bank decides to start raising rates faster than the end of 2019. Combined with stronger data from the EU than expected, the bank believes that the Fed will slow down its tightening policy, while ECB will tighten sooner. This will be the signal for trend reversal. This view is shared by PIMCO, whose expectations are that the Federal Reserve will slow down its pace of rate hikes. According to PIMCO Jerome Powell's most recent remarks from Jackson Hole point in this direction.
ABN Amro and Commerzbank forecast EUR/USD at 1,25-1,26 by the end of 2019. The expectations of big banks for EUR/USD.
Our views on EUR/USD:
EUR support after good consumer and IFO business confidence
EUR/USD: сентимент и технически анализ
Източник: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Графика: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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