Credit Suisse indicated in their review in June ("Global Equity Strategy") 30% probability of Greece leaving the euro zone, regardless of the agreement. Let us remind that yesterday Citi Research predicts a similar scenario - Greece's exit from the Eurozone within the next three years, with a probability of over 50%. For analysts of Credit Suisse, it is certain that if Greece refuses from the EUR a dramatic European system crisis will occur. The probability of this is estimated at less than 10%. Mark Carney also said today that the risks in the situation with the Greek debt to the European economy are smaller now.
Analysis of Credit Suisse stresses that Greece will face difficulties to implement the yesterday's formulated conditions. Adopting them by the parliament in Athens won't be easy. Additionally, Varoufakis described the agreement reached in Brussels as "catastrophic" for Greece and compares it with the Treaty of Versailles (Thesis that wave too many Greeks which Mrs. Merkel absolutely refused to comment.) And increasing the danger of SYRIZA government to fall. After firm "no" voters on the Greek austerity measures of austerity, the ECB has pushed Greek banks to close, which forced authorities in Athens to accept the agreement. Today, according to Bloomberg, Greece has chosen to cover its obligations to private investors, omitting second maturity to the IMF for EUR 450 million.
The general opinion is that European stocks are already the goal positives of the deal between Tsipras and creditors and their potential for growth in this occasion is exhausted.
Credit Suisse identifies some shares after April 15 fell by more than weighted general price declined compared to Euro Stoxx 50. Although this indicator, they remain positive predictive value EPS and rating "higher" than the market consensus. Credit Suisse points in this group of companies such as Merck Kgaa (MRCG, a 9% decrease, compared to the Euro Stoxx 50 Index), Telekom Austria (TELA, with a decline -8%), Numericable Pr (NUME, with a 6% drop).
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