Data for the chances for the next rate hikes in the USA

As per Bloomberg data, chances for the next rate hike in May are only 13.3%, as for June meeting chances are drastically higher up to 50%.

If we expect 3 raises this year, then it is possible that they maybe done in June and September or September and December. For now data shows that raises are further in the future are more likely. It is possible that FED will hold any further raises due to the uncertainties from the upcoming elections in Europe. After all is passed and the situation does remain calm, then maybe they will proceed with their work. The signals from the FED members in regards to the number of rate hikes is unclear, and maybe this will be revealed in due course, as different factors play a role, weather there will be 3 or 4 hikes for 2017; As how much of the agenda of the administration will be integrated into the economy and what would be its influence to the economy and other factors from the outside the country.

One thing is sure, the last two rate hikes were made in December and it is possible that this will continue. We do remain long on the USD, but at a lower levels or only after clear signals of reversal of this current correction.

Data source: Bloomberg

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