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DEUTSCHE BANK: We expect the stock market to go 'up and soon'

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"We expect the next 5%+ S&P price move to be up and soon."

"We are not panicked by this correction because we understand it," Deutsche Bank's chief US equity strategist, David Bianco said. "It's driven by a profit recession centered at certain industries caused by factors that we've long flagged as risks with detailed research and quantified sensitivities."

Bianco's no stranger to making contrarian buy calls when stock prices are tumbling. As the market was correcting during fall 2011, he cranked up his target for stocks and told clients to buy, drawing all sorts of nasty criticism. His call was later proved right.

Bianco now forecasts the S&P 500 will hit 2,200 this year on $120 earnings per share (EPS). This is down from his initial targets of 2,250 and $125.

Going back to his call for a rebound, one key assumption is that the whole economy doesn't go into recession.

"All GDP recessions coincide with profit declines, but not all profit declines coincide with GDP recessions and that's what makes it a profit recession as distinct from a broad recession," he said.

Dips of 5%+ are common and happen at least once a year. Only three years since 1960 didn't have a 5%+ dip (1964, 1993 & 1995) and many mid-cycle years saw more than one 5%+ dip during the year (late 1980s and late 1990s). Most 5%+ dips usually stay under 10% and are quick.

The S&P 500 was at 1,880 when he published this call. A 5% gain would take the index to 1,974.


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