Has Prandora's Trump's box opened the introduction of tariff policies? This question worries Wall Street for nearly two months, but driven by the present, very few investors look back in time.
If we are looking for the right answer to the question of how the tariffs will affect the market, it is good to look at Bush's 2002 decision when he imposed a 30% import levy on steel, pointing to the need for strong protection for US jobs - sound familiar? As a result, the SP500 collapsed by one-third, the Dollar Index by more than 13%, and the MSCI Emerging market index, which everyone expected to be the loser due to limited exports to the US, fell by 15%.
We currently have -10% for SP500, but what worries big investors is that, in addition to import tariffs for metals, we have tariffs on Chinese goods as a whole. The market reaction continues to be negative despite the White House's determination to give a chance to negotiations with China and NAFTA countries. There is no significant reaction on the part of China, which speaks only one - constructive negotiations are unlikely to be. Canada and Mexico remain available for bargaining, but analysts are of the opinion that achieving consensus is a difficult target.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
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