What slowdown in the economy? Eastern Europe performs better than expected!
In Eastern Europe, economic data exceeds expectations in the third quarter. The leading indicator is local consumption, which outperforms the weaker demand from the main export market - the Eurozone.
Data from Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland outperforms the economic forecasts for a slowdown, as evidenced by weak industrial production and retail sales. The Czech Republic, however, shows a surprising delay, while Bulgaria shows growth beyond expectations.
Annual growth in all six countries exceeds that of the Eurozone, which slowed down 1.7% after a 2.2% revision in the previous quarter. Local demand, driven by a good labor market and a boom in the construction sector, has become the key growth factor. However, GDP data is not consistent with good results. Prominent industrial production and low retail sales outlook. The surprise economic expansion will confuse the plans of the Romanian Central Bank, which keeps the interest rates stable this month. They wait for inflation to return to their target. Tourism, construction and agriculture are the factors driving Hungarian growth. The weaker export is the main reason for the slowdown in the Czech Republic.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Graphs: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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