The consensus has been consistently wrong about U.S. employment in the month of August. For six years running, economists have overestimated the government’s initial payrolls print -- and by a pretty wide margin -- a trend that may be explained by the seasonal adjustment process.
The biggest miss was in 2014, when the Bloomberg median forecast was off by a whopping 88,000. Perhaps that’s a reason why few economists raised their employment estimate after ADP reported Wednesday a larger-than-forecast 237,000 gain in private payrolls. The median projection ahead of Friday’s jobs report is 180,000.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
Jr Trader Ivan Ivanov
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