The new forecast is that the war will have a positive development in 2019.
When tariffs begin to have a negative impact on the US economy sometime next year, we will also have a commercial truce. Danske Bank economists see a 60% chance of a positive result from the Trump-Xi meeting at their G20 meeting in Argentina, to be held from 30.11 to 01.12. Their initial forecast for a 50% chance. The increase in positive developments means that for now the dialogue between the two presidents is going smoothly and there is a list of requests and requests to be followed by both sides.
Tensions will increase before any result, because Trump is likely to increase tariffs on imports from China. Earlier in December, the president will announce the remaining tariffs if there is no progress at the meeting.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Chart: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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