EUR/AUD - Opportunity for short-term intranight Long Trades

EUR/AUD - H1

Our Expectations - The price is in a short-term upward trend, and the current correction, coupled with the bad foundation for the AUD, provides good levels for positioning with long positions. The downward correction forms a flag formation that was activated earlier today, and is currently being tested. The price is in a support zone formed by an internal horizon and a diagonal, a major diagonal of the upward trend, 50SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the last ascending wave. RSI 14 is over 50 - a likely upward pulse.

SL: 1.6051

During the Asian session, I expect traders to focus on AUD sales because at 07:30 we expect the RBA's decision on the base interest rate and the bank's report on monetary policy in the country. In the bank's report, I expect bankers to confirm their support for a weaker monetary policy to mitigate the consequences of the war. This will lead to additional AUD auctions, but I do not expect big movements, as the position of the bank is largely accrued in the price. The most likely scenario in the following hours is a test of the previous peak in the area around 1.6171.

Alternative Scenario: Greater influence on the Australian may change the tone of the central bankers, trying to tighten monetary policy. This will be an event that is not accumulated by markets and will lead to strong AUD growth. In this case, the positive scenario for EUR/AUD will be spoiled and more likely to see a decrease in the pair's price.

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