EUR/USD - Weekly outlook
Our expectations - the Euro-bulls made a serious request to rise on the last day of the week, ensuring the sustainability of the support level in the area between 1.1400 / 1.1500. In the past five weeks, the dollar growth has tested the resistance of the zone formed by a horizontal horizon, diagonal, and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward trend. The price has reached and close to 200SMA, with the 50-period stay over it - positive for the price. In addition, DeMarker points up from the over-sales area - also positive for the price. Sequential counts the 9th "Downstream Impulse" bottom and "Top New Impulse" on top - positive for the price.
Technically, it seems that the price will go up. Fundamentally, however, we must pay attention to the coming week in which we are expecting data on new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector - the NFP. The beginning of next week is expected to be calm as far as the US dollar. On Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the United States will celebrate the Independence Day, and as you might guess, it will lead to extremely low volatility in the days until Thursday when major investors return and focus their attention on labor market data. ADP's preliminary data on new jobs in the US will be published on Thursday. Forecasts are upward from previous data to 190,000 from 178,000. However, official figures are expected to be lower than the previous one, from 200,000 to 223,000 in May. As we know, better data than forecasted will lead to a USD growth, a worse, to a downside.
With better data, I expect the support zone to be tested again, and worse, the EUR / USD growth will continue. Taking into account the much worse GDP data that was posted this week, I expect any bad data for the NFP to have a detrimental effect on the USD.
Dollar Index - Probable Correction
SL: 1.1332
Alternative Scenario: Passing the price below the support zone will break the positive scenario and are more likely to see a decrease in the pair.
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