Everything you need to know about the ECB meeting: expectations and projections

Today is the day when the ECB decides on the interest rate, announces its opinion on monetary policy, and Mario Draghi will hold a press conference. The interest announcement will be at 2:45 pm and the press conference at 3:30 pm.

There have been various forecasts and views in recent days, and we will summarize them here.

BNZ: The consensus among economists is a 10-point rate cut on deposit interest rates and the resumption of QE, each month buying bonds for around € 30 billion. Markets value 14 cut points and allow a 50% chance of a cut of 20 points. The ECB is expected to disclose a parallel valuation system for bank reserves, as part of bank reserves will be protected from the effect of negative interest rates on deposits in order to prevent a bad effect on the banking sector. The bond market will focus on whether the ECB will restart the QE program, and if so, with how much.

ANZ: Markets are expecting a reduction in deposit rates along with the resumption of the buyback program. Anything other than that will fire the euro, which has been suppressed by the expected QE. The split on the ECB board actually suggests that this may happen.

Westpac: We expect interest rates on deposits to go down with a buyout program of around € 40 billion a month.

UBS: We expect the ECB to define an optimized policy relief package: a QE of € 45 billion over 15 months, 70% of the portfolio being government bonds. Rate cut by 20 points, with the launch of TLTRO - III this month to be more effective. Implementation of a facilitating mechanism for banks. New policy direction to clarify actions by the end of the QE program.

TD: We are expecting a dovish ECB position, with a cut of 20 points, along with a relief system and a QE of EUR 40 billion.

After all, one question is: What is already rated? This type of question always turns in the minds of investors, especially at such a significant moment. Against this background, of course, there is also a serious likelihood of surprises, such as a delay in QE and no change in interest rates. After all, the ECB can be disappointing, and in particular the reaction of the markets to this disappointment can be much more telling than the details we will learn today.

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