Fed doesn't want to be pressured by the market

Or at least risk a market reaction like the one we saw in overnight trading. It is impossible to believe that John Williams will not know that his "academic" remarks yesterday will lead to a deep market reaction.

The need for his own New York branch to clarify the situation shows that the central bank does not want the market to take the lead in the FOMC meeting on July 31st. Or at least they do not want the market to have a correct / wrong idea about it.

In short, the Federal Reserve wishes to be able to report potential future changes and redirect management to its own terms and not be harassed by the market to decide when and how much to adjust interest rates.

This is the case, as the Federal Reserve has started to tighten its policy as early as December 2015, and the markets began to telegrap and evaluate when the bank has to make changes and they have been harassed (based on their guidance to a certain extent) making these decisions.

This is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve has changed its meetings to include a press conference every year. The whole idea is to take back some control and keep the markets of fingers.

As for the upcoming July meeting, I do not see how the FED can escape by 25 basis points, but they have a certain inclination to keep the markets to guess whether this is going to be a "time and finish" case or the beginning of a new cycle.

In my opinion, this is what they are trying to keep in their locker. It is inconceivable to think that they would lose a significant portion (50 basis points) of the buffer they have accumulated over the past five years, so I am 25 points.

But the Federal Reserve must realize that if it does not want to be harassed, politicians will have to be more solid in their communication. This last failure is definitely not an example.

I think the Fed will hit (as always when they can afford it) in July, leaving the door open for potentially more redundancies that could cause problems for the dollar in the decision-making - even if the central bank is unlikely to act on this question.

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