„FOMC Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting“ ... could prove more backward looking than normal

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's policy-setting meeting held about 3 weeks earlier. These are some of preliminary comments:

Goldman: The FOMC Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting should provide some useful information to better assess the timing of the Fed's 'lift-off' date. Our economists' base case remains December.

Nomura: We do not expect the FOMC to use the minutes to send a clear signal about its near-term intentions. Here are the critical issues and what to look for in the minutes: 1. the outlook for growth? 2. Foreign impact on the US economy... 3. How confident is the FOMC in its outlook for inflation? 4. Where is the point that should be increasing inflationary pressures?  5. How concerned is FOMC about year-end volatility?

Credit Suisse:  The July FOMC statement lowered the bar for labor market improvement from needing. Persistently low inflation continues to be a concern for the Fed. We remain bullish on the USD.

Morgan Stanley: any adjustment back should be USD positive.

Barclays: We do not expect a material change.  We believe that the FOMC has already made up their mind about their next move. Our base case remains a September.

BofA Merrill: Details about just what Fed officials still want to see on the labor market side...

SocGen: We  don't really hold out too much hope that the FOMC minutes will magically clear the fog surrounding Fed policy and resolve the debate raging in the market. So, it seems right to stay long USD and JPY, short Asian and commodity-sensitive currencies through the uncertainty.

RBS: Market participants are desperate for a similarly clear signal ... Because the meeting took place before China's devaluation.

BNPP: We think the risk-reward still favours being patiently bullish on the USD ahead of the likely return of better trading conditions in September.

HSBC: It will be important to see the proportion of FOMC members concerned about external events.

Commerzbank: hike in September. Оnly massive downside surprises will keep the Fed from implementing its plans.

SEB: a possible discussion on the interest rate path and how to communicate it to the public...

Danske: We continue to see the first Fed funds rate hike coming in September, but the risk is that it comes later.

BTMU: The deteriorating outlook for external demand and strengthening US dollar are two factors that the will Fed will have to take into consideration as it decides on when to begin the gradual process of monetary policy normalization. The minutes could prove more backward looking than normal following the recent devaluation of the renminbi.