For stocks, it’s season versus reason: Trader

Stocks closed out the first week of December with a bang, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average each seeing their best days in almost three months. And while the Friday rally still left stocks flat on the week, some traders say this is evidence that the holiday season has markets ignoring some larger problems.

"Keep in mind, it's a battle of season over reason," technician Rich Ross of Evercore ISI said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "The opposing force that we have here which didn't keep markets down on Friday, clearly, is this ongoing erosion in the macro backdrop."

Ross said investors should still be concerned about the continued plunge in commodities prices, specifically in oil. Crude oil settled down almost 3 percent on Friday, ending the week below $40 a barrel. Following crude oil's decline, energy was the S&P 500's only negative sector Friday, sliding 0.5 percent.

But as December has historically been the strongest month, Ross said he's betting on the side of seasonality for the time being.

"There is some risk there that is being overwhelmed by this otherwise very strong seasonality," he said. "[But] over time, stocks go up three out of four times in December over the last 65 years. I'll take those odds."

The tendency for seasonality to take over was supported on Friday by a lack of big events in the coming week, said Eddy Elfenbein of the "Crossing Wall Street" blog.

"We really don't have a lot to go in the way of economic reports or earnings reports, and I think everybody is going to be focused on the Fed meeting the following week," Elfenbein said Friday on "Trading Nation," looking to the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Dec. 15 and 16.

The economy added 211,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November, a number that topped expectations and signaled to some that the central bank will raise the federal funds rate at the December meeting. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, traders see a 79 percent chance of a rate hike this month

CNBC