Forex - ANZ's monthly outlook

Since every month has its own tendency and many forex traders are currently wondering what to expect from currencies during the month of March, Yohay Elam of ForexCrunch.com shares—and comments on—the current view from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

Every month has its own tendency, with patterns often repeating themselves. What can we expect from March? Here are the views from ANZ:

While short USD/CAD and long USD/JPY tend to perform well during the month of March, they are not attractive seasonal plays from a risk/reward perspective, notes Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

Figure 1 shows how G10 and Asian currencies have performed during the month of March over the 2000- 15 period.

“Among the G10 currencies, USD/CAD has the best directional move with declines in 11 out of the last 16 years. But the average spot move is marginal at -0.1%.

USD/JPY has the best overall seasonal pattern, gaining in ten out of the last 16 years for an average spot gain of 0.6%. However, the percentage moves during years when it goes against the seasonal pattern is larger than when it conforms to it, which does not make it an attractive seasonal play from a risk/reward perspective,” ANZ clarifies.