Nonfarm Payrolls 15:30(GMT+3) seems above expectations

Today, at 15:30 (GMT+3), we expect Nonfarm Payrolls data from the United States, and despite inclement weather and trade tariffs, Wednesday's data for Private-sector hiring as measured by the ADP Research Institute, is creating expectations for better data today.

In contrast to expectations for a slowdown, hiring growth kept pace with February’s 240k-plus reading. This indicates that the labor market is becoming extremely tight. Bloomberg Economics projects the unemployment rate to fall below 4% in the March jobs report, released on Friday.

Particularly importance for the direction of the USD today will be the Average hourly earnings data, as the consensus of 0.3% will be difficult to pass, but with previous 0.1%, data will probably be read by the traders and investors as positive.

At the start of the European session, we see the expectations are being fast accumulated by the dollar, which is currently the strongest currency for the day. With better data today, which are the expectations of the majority of bank players, we can expect a further appreciation of the US dollar. Positive data would also help indices erase some of the losses they recorded during the Asian hours, following Donald Trump's new threats for new import tariffs for China. However, positivism from possible better data on indices will be much more limited than the lately oversold dollar.

Alternately worse data on NFP, unemployment rates and hourly wages will be strongly negative for both the indeces and the USD. In such a scenario, we can look for long positions, especially with EURUSD and short with USDJPY.

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