A decision by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union would likely trigger a big sell-off in the pound, a sharp decline in household income and a recession, according to billionaire investor George Soros.
Citing estimates from multiple authorities including the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund, Soros said the average income loss per household due to a falling British currency would be between £3,000 and £5,000 annually ($4,400 and $7,335).
Soros understands fluctuations in the British currency — he made a good chunk of his fortune betting against the pound in 1992. Now he is predicting that a Brexit would cause a 15 to 20 percent decline in the currency.
He cited three reasons: The Bank of England could not cut rates from already low levels; the U.K. has a large current account deficit and likely would not see another inflow of cash; and the loss of currency value wouldn't help exports, because of uncertainty in trading conditions that the Brexit would trigger.
"I want people to know what the consequences of leaving the EU would be before they cast their votes, rather than after," Soros wrote. "A vote to leave could see the week end with a Black Friday, and serious consequences for ordinary people."
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