Goldman: Brexit's implementation remains politically unexplained. This week, the British Parliament rejected May's proposal for the second time. They rejected the Brexit no - deal, but accepted an extension of Point 50 for three months until June 30.
Next week, the EU holds a high-level meeting (21-22 March), but before that, ministers will vote again on the May deal for a third time on March 20th. If Parliament does not support it then, then Europe will insist on extending Brexit at least by the end of 2020, which will make it more difficult for Parliament and perhaps the fourth vote will not oppose Theresa May.
The bank sees a 60% chance for the May deal to be ratified after all. Nevertheless, Goldman also allowed 35% to stop Brexit through a second referendum. The chances of exit from the EU without a deal remain relatively low - 5%.
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