Hedge funds are bearish on US dollar for the first time since July 2014

Hedge funds and other large speculators betting on a weak dollar for the first time in almost two years.

Positions that will benefit from the depreciation of the US currency exceed those interested in the rise with 21.567 orders for the week ended April 19, according to a report on Friday from the Commission for trading commodity futures. This is the first time since July 2014, when data showed no net long positions in the dollar against eight other major currencies.

Buying the dollar was a winning trade for the past two years. Now the Fed is toward higher interest rates and were taken aggressive quantitative easing in Europe and Japan. The dollar rose more than 20% since mid-2014 Appreciation stopped after a slowdown in the economy prompted the US central bank to cut forecasts for growth and inflation at its meeting last month.

"The meeting in March sent a message that there is no hurry to increase interest rates," said Mazen Isa, senior currency strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank in New York. "It is indicative that the ambiguity of 2015 has increased in 2016."

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US currency against 10 major currencies, rose 0.4 percent this week, compared to 4% decline this year.

Futures traders are betting there is no chance Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen and monetary policy committee to raise rates at its meeting next week. According to them there is 63% likelihood the central bank not to take the increase to December, compared with a 50 percent chance given week ago. The calculation assumes an effective interest rate of 0.625% on average after the next increase in the central bank.

"Remember that Janet Yellen is now firmly on the position that will rise only if inflation goes up." said Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments LLC to Bloomberg Television. "The rise is tired, the dollar is tired."

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