On the Federal Reserve and rates:
"I think perhaps the Fed will not hike ever again in 2019. ... If you go back and look at what I said both in our interview and with you time and time again, I have been a bear on yields. I think that the Fed — is somewhat misreading what's going on. Yields are not going much higher and — there's an outside chance that they cut before the end of 2019."
On stocks: expect a bumpier ride
"I think it will be very volatile, and — for the first half — probably flat to down as the Fed and others grapple with what they want to do."
Brexit will happen, but the ramifications have still not been felt:
"Time is running out. They're going to have to make a decision in late spring. I think Brexit will be forced upon them and it will not be comfortable. I think people will be surprised at how disruptive it is."
On tariffs: more or fewer tariffs?
"I think they may walk back from the tariffs that are threatened, but I think the global economy may shrink somewhat. It's already begun to shrink. China's seeing it — its exports go down, but perversely, not with America yet. That's to come. It — the — the exports are going down with Europe. So the global economy is slowing. 2019 is going to be somewhat of a difficult year."
On whether we make a long term deal to settle the trade war with China:
"I don't believe so. I think we will get something that approximates it, and you'll get perhaps in midyear a relaxation rally, but — with — with the problems of — political sequencing, whatever, I don't think it works out."
On global growth: Do we have any clarity on the extent of the slowdown?
"That will be difficult to find, and — and if anything I would think, and I'm not an economist, that instead of 3 percent or better growth, you're probably going to get way back to 1.5 percent or 1.7 percent, and — and things will slow down."
On whether President Trump will be a help or a hindrance to the markets in 2019:
"He will be a bit of a problem in the first half and he will bend over backwards to try to be a big help to it in the second half. Whether that's effective or not, I don't know."
Source: CNBC
Read more:
25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256
World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600 Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44
Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.
Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006
The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Disclaimer:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.