Here's what experts say about Brexit's upcoming vote (March 12, 2019)

Prime Minister Theresa May faces several challenges next week that will set Brexit 's inevitable course and Britain' s future relationship with the European Union.

On Tuesday (March 12th), politicians will vote for a second time on May's overall proposal. In the first attempt in January, the vote was against. If the majority does not approve the Brexit terms on Tuesday, a vote will follow whether to leave the Block without a deal.

If they vote against Brexit's no-deal, a vote will follow whether to prolong Point 50 (which sets the exit process) and delay UK's exit from the Union, currently scheduled for March 29th.

A large number of ministers and politicians do not like the fact that Northern Ireland can remain in close contact with the European Union because of the so- backstop. In addition, the UK will need the EU's approval to accept or reject the backstop.

So ... a deal or not?

Following are the views of experts who share their vision whether this time the deal will pass through Parliament successfully or will follow a new failure that will lead to a potential delay in Brexit or an exit without a deal.

"We suspect that the March 12 vote will be another loss for May, because the deal itself will be exactly the same." Some speculate that when a "delay in the Brexit" option is already in place, we will vote for the so-called bad deal rather than there is a delay in Brexit, but it will hardly convince ministers to the contrary, "said Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

"We do not expect the deal to pass the vote on Tuesday, though the result is much thinner this time than in January." Some pro-Brexit ministers may decide to vote to accept the deal given the potential delay that may occur. Also, the fact that the EU already knows the consequences of the loss will lighten their view of the backstop problem. A delay of 2 to 3 months is in our expectations. " - says John Wraith, chief economist and strategist at UBS.

"From a political point of view, the risk is that the so-called Brexiteers may miss the Brexit train and may find an opportunity to accept the deal." - Michael O'Sullivan, director of Credit Suisse in Private Banking & Wealth Management.

"We doubt May will be able to win at this stage, and we are looking forward to extending Point 50 by 2 to 3 months, which would provide a deal for May at the end of April." - says Bruce Kasman, Director of Economic Research at J.P. Morgan.

"The vote next week will be on the brink, but we expect the deal to be accepted at 55%, but if May be defeated, we expect a whole new deal in June, and the real threat of this scenario may be to encourage Eurosceptics to support May." - says Mujtaba Rahman, director of Europe at Eurasia Group.

Source: CNBC

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