How did seasonal patterns fare for the past month

How did seasonal patterns fare for the past month?

Very good, especially if we look beyond the headlines.

Last month, there were 4 seasonally driven ideas, three of them winners and one potential phenomenon.

Let's review them.

1) Weakness of oil at the end of the year

It's not exactly what it looks like.

September has generally been a neutral month for the last decade but there has been growing evidence of weakness in the last three months of the year. That was the idea - fulfillment? 2% decrease to date.

The main thought was that September was the month for selling the rally, and that's exactly what happened, with the crude jumping 15% over the attack on Saudi Arabia, just to make all the profit. Now, before we praise the seasonal patterns too much, this also serves to emphasize the art of trading. It had an increase of $ 3 at the beginning of the month and a sale of $ 58 for a decrease to $ 54, which in itself would be a good trade. Of course, that movement was wiped out by the September 16th rise.

Overall, this strategy proved to be profitable, with patience being the key here - something that can be said for almost all profitable trades.

2) Stock pain and Canada

It was a blow and a pass. The seasonal weakness of the stock market is a fact, especially for Canada this month. The S&P 500 ended the month with a 1.8% gain and the Toronto TSX up 1.6% after hitting a record mid-month. This month was really expected to be the worst for Canada, so maybe October?

The conclusion here is that the good news about the trade war has beaten seasonal patterns. They are very useful, but they cannot replace the foundation.

3) USD / CHF strength

In principle, September is the second most valid month for the couple. The move wasn't that impressive, but 100-pips are 100-pips, and the pair hit a 3-month high today.

4) The second weakest month for gold in the last decade

That speaks for itself. Gold was in a long trend at the beginning of the month, but the peak was formed on September 4 and the precious metal fell by 3.1% in a month.

Read more:

• And for all the bounty hunters: Iran offers $80m for the head of Donald Trump
• US service member and 2 US Defense Dept contractors killed in Kenya attack
• Iranian Quds leader Qasem Soleimani has been killed – how are markets reacting
• A calm end of an otherwise loud 2019
• Old but Gold – Top 5 posts of Varchev Finance