How much market experts expect stocks to rise next year

U.S. stocks should rise slightly in 2017 as equities benefit from tax cuts, according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey.

The survey of 13 strategists' outlooks published since the U.S. election found the median 2017 S&P 500 (^GSPC) price target is 2,325, or 3 percent from Friday's close of 2,258. Wells Fargo Investment Institute only gave a range of 2,230 to 2,330.

U.S. stocks have soared since President-elect Donald Trump won the election as traders bet on increased growth from Trump's promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation. The S&P 500 climbed more than 5.5 percent since the election for a more than 10 percent rise year to date. The benchmark index ended 2015 less than 1 percent lower for the year.

*Middle of a 2,230–2,330 range

Analysts say a major risk for stocks is whether Trump can quickly implement those proposals after his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017. The prospect of a reduced capital gains tax rate next year under the Trump administration may be also pushing out a seasonal market decline from the first half of December to January.

Goldman Sachs' outlook describes potential stock market action as a "hope" trade that sees the S&P 500 peak at 2,400 in the first quarter, before falling 100 points to 2,300 by year end in a "fear" trade on higher inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Other strategists see stocks continuing to climb past their mid-year targets.

Citi's Tobias Levkovich expects the S&P 500 could trade at 2,250 in the middle of next year before ending the year at 2,325.

David Bianco at Deutsche Bank expects the S&P to hit 2,250 by the Jan. 20, 2017, and climb to 2,300 "upon a sizable corp. tax rate cut," before ending the year at 2,350 — about 4 percent above Friday's close.

"The time in-between inauguration and tax cuts is risky, waiting for stimulus when rates and FX markets reflect such will cap stocks. Fed will pause until Act is passed," Bianco said in an early December note. He expects the corporate tax rate will be cut to 25 percent.

Trump has proposed cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, along with a one-time 10 percent tax rate on repatriated corporate profits now held offshore.

In addition to their official year-end target for the S&P 500, several firms gave a wide range of possible stock market scenarios. Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Savita Subramanian said the index could potentially rise as high as 2,700 or fall to 1,600 — her base case is for the S&P to end next year at 2,300.

"With 2016 on pace to be the weakest year of global growth since 2009, it wouldn't take much to get improvement next year, with potential for extra oomph from stimulus and tax reform," Subramanian said in a late November note.

But "if policymakers cannot deliver growth, the markets will be disappointed given the multiple expansion we have seen in stimulus beneficiaries," she said. "Buybacks are slowing, cost-cutting is reversing, and elevated valuations and leverage ratios along with weak sales growth paint a grim picture."

Jonathan Glionna at Barclays said the S&P could climb as high as 2,500 and earnings per share could grow as much as 12 percent if Trump's plans are implemented. His base case is slightly lower — at 2,400 — but potential downside is much lower at 2,000.

Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker expects the S&P 500 to hit 2,300 over the next 12 months, but could fall as low as 1,625 in a worst case scenario, or rise as high as 3,050.

The maximum and minimum base targets on the S&P 500 among the 13 strategists were RBC at 2,500 and the middle of Wells Fargo's range at 2,280, respectively.

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