The dollar will strengthen regardless of any protectionist action by incoming U.S. leader Donald Trump as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Trump’s election pledge to bring back jobs and revive U.S. manufacturing will “starve emerging markets of those excess dollars that are outside,” David Bloom, the global head of currency strategy at HSBC.
“If Trump loosens fiscal policy, which he says he will, that means tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar” . “Trump can’t have a weaker dollar, fiscal policy, higher rates. You just can’t have it all.”
HSBC sees the dollar climbing about 8 percent against the yen and 5 percent versus the euro to 125 and $1.01 respectively this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“If you go and make these policies, the dollar goes up. If you name a country as a currency manipulator, the dollar goes up, not down,” said Bloom. “That’s just the way it works. He’s not going to be able to change all of America and all global markets all the time just by Twitter.”
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