If this issue is resolved we can expect 10% stock-market gain

After the dust has settled on the stock market's rough period at the end of 2018, Wall Street is divided on the path ahead.

A growing number of analysts think the market's recent turbulence allowed it to shake out some weakness. And now that the market seems stronger, the argument is that the path has been cleared for a move higher.

John Lynch, the chief investment strategist at LPL Financial, says the S&P 500 will rise about 10% from the current levels by the end of 2019. His target target for the end of the year of 3,000 for the S&P 500 puts him among the most bullish strategists on Wall Street.

At the core of his forecast is an underlying bullishness around corporate earnings. And while that may seem obvious, given the historically direct link between profit growth and share appreciation, it's his reasoning that is so intriguing.

A big part of Lynch's thesis revolves around a trade-war resolution. In fact, he thinks any progress could help for more stock gains. "Once we get signs of trade progress, companies can start investing in property, plants, and equipment, which keeps productivity up. That can extend the profit cycle, even if we have challenges for a couple of quarters."

As an extension of that logic, if the US fails to make progress on trade, it puts the entire thesis at risk.

Given all of that, Lynch isn't so naive to believe that the US market is fully in the clear. He recognizes the unpredictable nature of the current political climate and the uncertainty it poses. That's why he's keeping a close eye on any developments, should he need to quickly alter his stance.

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