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Important events that traders will watch this week
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Loading...Over the weekend, Norway’s prime minister makes a state visit to China. I wouldn’t normally include this but the two countries have only recently normalized relations. China has rapidly become Norway’s biggest Asian trading partner. International trade may be under fire, but it is an example how sometimes important bilateral relationships can be repaired, and quickly, if it suits both parties.
On Monday, G-7 foreign ministers begin a two-day meeting. The new U.S. secretary of state makes his debut in this setting. Given the events in Syria, everyone will be watching for evidence of solidarity, notwithstanding the immediate expressions of support.
We’ll also see the South Africa Reserve Bank’s semi-annual monetary policy review. I assume it’s been sent to re-write a few times given all of the recent travails. Not to mention Fitch joining the downgrade crowd on Friday with a cut to junk. The economic outlook will be interesting for a country whose assets have gone from loved to hated in very short order.
The U.S. Treasury will kick off the week’s bond auctions with the three-year, with 10s and 30s to follow over the next two days. With yields having come off hard this past week, we’ll have to see if there’s a short covering bid or an aversion to buy at newly lower yields.
On Wednesday both the Bank of Canada and Brazil’s BCB have rates meetings. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will keep rates on hold and try to explain his overt dovishness even as economic numbers have improved. The BCB is expected to deliver a full 100 basis-point cut. No cessation of this cycle where rates are expected to be 300-basis points lower than they were last fall. Still double-digit carry does have its appeal.
If it’s Thursday, you should be thinking about Australia. The unemployment report is expected to show a rebound after the February dud. It’s the full-time jobs component which you should watch. The RBA downgraded its labor market outlook to softened from mixed. A 2017 rate hike isn’t even a possibility unless this changes.
Friday’s supposed to be a U.S. holiday. But it isn’t. There’s CPI, Retail Sales and Real Average Earnings. Fortunately it will be short. Expect the market to move, stop and everyone to agree they’ll revisit the issue the following week.
Source: Bloomberg
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