Interest rate decisions, Brexit and trade wars during next week 18-22.03.2019

The economic calendar seems seemingly calm for next week. Three interest rates decisions from the US, UK and Swiss central banks, expecting them to be absolutely routine without surprises and changes in monetary policy.

However, the UK will keep stock and FX markets busy as Theresa May will make a new attempt to pass the Brexit deal through parliament. Brexit's implementation remains politically unexplained. This week, the British Parliament rejected May's proposal for the second time. They rejected the Brexit no - deal, but accepted an extension of Point 50 for three months until June 30. Next week, the EU holds a high-level meeting (21-22 March), but before that, ministers will vote again on the May deal for a third time on March 20th. If Parliament does not support it then, then Europe will insist on extending Brexit at least by the end of 2020, which will make it more difficult for Parliament and perhaps the fourth vote will not oppose Theresa May. The bank sees a 60% chance for the May deal to be ratified after all. Nevertheless, Goldman also allowed 35% to stop Brexit through a second referendum. The chances of exit from the EU without a deal remain relatively low - 5%.

Of course, Donald Trump will also take care of the volatility of the markets, with the rhetoric of trade relations between the US and China remaining at the forefront. The president expects more clarity about the agreement between the two countries next month. The two largest economies in the world have engaged in a trade war last year, imposing another serious commercial tariffs. There are enough signs that we can say that the war is coming to an end, but the issue of protecting intellectual property and other structural factors in Chinese markets remains key to resolving between Beijing and Washington.

01:50 Japan - Trade Balance
12:00 Europe - Trade Balance

Tuesday:
02:30 Australia - RBA Meeting Minutes
11:30 UK - Claimant Count Change
12:00 Europe - ZEW Economic Sentiment

Wednesday:
11:30 UK - CPI
16:30 USA - Crude Oil Inventories
Tentative UK - Parliament Vote on Brexit Deal
20:00 USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision
23:45 New Zealand - Gross Domestic Product

Thursday:
03:30 Australia - Employment Change
10:30 Switzerland - SNB Interest Rate Decision
11:00 Europe - ECB Economic Bulletin
11:30 UK - Retail Sales
14:00 UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
14:30 USA - Initial Jobless Claims

Friday:
01:30 Japan - National Core CPI
10:30 Germany - Manufacturing PMI
14:30 Canada - Retail Sales
15:45 USA - Existing Home Sales
20:00 USA - Federal Budget Balance

Read more:

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