Interest rates from ECB and BOJ while the earnings season runs in the next week

As far as the economic calendar is concerned, next week it will start quietly, with no significant news in the early days that will lead to strong market fluctuations. Syria, however, remains in focus, and though unlikely, escalation of tension there will lead to a new spike in oil, and how Trump will react and what it will bring is another matter. In the absence of a fundamental factor from the Middle East, we expect weak JPY volatility and a possible oil adjustment. The reporting season will run next week as well, and we expect the Alphabet report on Monday, which may and will most likely be key to the mood in the technology sector. Also, reports of military companies expecting record highs will be published during the week, as during the first year of Trump's presidency, the US administration has endeavored to enter into colossal deals for the sale of military equipment to China and Saudi Arabia. Despite the lack of economic news in the early days of the week, the above lines suggest dynamic behavior on the part of the indices.

Next week, traders will focus their attention first on the ECB on Thursday and then on Bank Of Japan on Friday. We look forward to both the central interest rates and the two central banks. Expectations among investors are that neither the ECB nor Bank Of Japan will change their monetary policy and even less to change interest rates. The main reason for this is growing concerns about the trade war, despite the fact that Japan and the EU will not be hit. The probabilities of the increase are the following: 6.2% for the ECB and 10.2% for the Bank of Japan. In other words, moods imply a slight impact of the decision on EUR and JPY. While unlikely, we should not exclude and surprise the central banks. Changing interest rates to higher will result in a sharp appreciation of the currency.

Economic Calendar for the Next Week - 24.04 to 27.04.2018

Monday
03:30 Japan - Production PMI
10:00 France - Production PMI
10:30 Germany - Production PMI
11:00 Eurozone - Production PMI
17:00 USA - Selling Existing Homes

Tuesday
04:30 Australia - CPI
11:00 Germany - IFO Business Climate
17:00 USA - Selling New Homes
17:00 USA - Consumer Confidence
23:00 United States - API Oil Stocks

Wednesday
Holiday day in Australia and New Zealand
17:30 US - Oil Stocks

Thursday
11:30 UK - Approved Mortgage Loans
14:45 Euro area - ECB interest rate decision
15:30 USA - Sale of durable goods
15:30 Eurozone - Press conference of the ECB

Friday
01:45 New Zealand - Trade Balance
02:30 Japan - CPI
02:50 Japan - Industrial production
02:50 Japan - Unemployment rate
02:50 Japan - New Jobs
04:30 Australia - PPI
06:00 Japan - Interest Rate
06:00 Japan - Bank Of Japan Report on Monetary Policy
15:30 US - GDP

Read more:

• Investors pull record amounts out of US stock funds
• Oil rises after OPEC+ says to keep output cuts
• The Weakest Currency Of Them All
• China: April growth weakened due to distortions
• IMF cuts global growth outlook again