The reality is, actual investors have learned that all binary outcomes won’t resolve themselves in the same way and they have to find more than one way to deconstruct events. Most issues in life, and certainly in geopolitics, are better characterized by yin and yang rather than it’s all zero sum.Stock valuations are really high and must correct. The buyers are greater fools. Maybe. Certainly popular. But we’re also about to enter earnings season and some pretty smart people are looking for a robust set of numbers. With earnings growth handily outstripping the previous two years.Low market volatility can just as easily be a time correction after a big run higher as a petering out of momentum before the deluge.And it’s not just a U.S. thing. Ebitda forecasts are rising for Japanese companies while credit-default swaps continue to come tighter. Credit OAS spreads for Chinese off-shore bonds are looking decidedly relaxed. And guess what, investors think the real upside surprise could come from Europe.Less and less is expected on U.S. fiscal initiatives in the
short-term. That’s bullish not bearish. Rather than being built into the price there’s greater scope for it to be potential icing on the market’s cake
Source: Bloomberg
Trader Bozhidar Arabadzhiev
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