June seasonal patterns - trouble ahead on a few fronts

Seasonal models in June make currency pairs more interesting. First, June is the worst month of the calendar for the past six decades for the Swiss Frank. It fell in 10 of the last 12 years with an average of -1.37%.

What is especially interesting with the beginning of the new month is that the USD / CHF pair flirts with the bottom of May and the parity. Downward movement will be greatly favored by collapsing yields on government securities, turning to safe-haven assets, as well as Fed signals for lowering interest rates.

Naturally, all depends on the outcome of the trade war, but there are several factors that already support USD / CHF sales.

Similarly, June is the third worst month in the USD / JPY calendar, falling by an average of 0.80% over the past 10 years. This is also followed by July, which is the weakest month.

Continuing ahead, June is the second strongest month in the euro calendar. Last year, with the beginning of the war, the common currency performed very strongly. The average profit for this month over the past 10 years is 0.5%.

Additionally:
Gold ended May strong, but seasonal models did not support it in June.
Those who want a more optimistic outlook to watch AUD and NZD that perform well in June and July.
There is no long-term SPX loss trend in June, but this is not true lately with a slight increase in each of the past three years.
Two stock markets that perform poorly in this period are TFSE 100 and Canadian TSX. June is the worst month for both over the past decade.

Read more:

• NZD/JPY – Short with the main movement after a price action signal
• Jeffrey Gundlach: “USD’s next move is going to be down”
• Here’s a cable forecast for $1.40 till end of 2020
• NZD to 0.59 at end of Q1 2020
• Support for risky currencies as trade war hopes grow